New Wisdom Investment Limited

Is the copper market of China will slowdown in second-half?

(Aug 25, 2016)

Data from Barclays commodity analyst Dane Davis indicated that net imports of refined copper of China in July, had fell by 33%, compared with last month. What is worth mentioning is that the China’s total contained copper imports fell by 10%.

"The strength in first-half imports that defied market expectations may be showing its first signs of petering out, but there is still good news contained within the data," he said.

However, the copper concentrate imports for China have continued to grow on no matter a month-on-month or a year-on-year basis.

"Overall, we see a market that is growing on a year-on-year basis, but at risk for a sharp slowdown in the second half, which according to our view should send prices again below US$2 per pound."

On a contained tonnage basis, the import total for June was 77,000t, while was a 660,000t in July.

The contained copper import total for China was up 3% at 641,000t, Comparing to last July.

Year-to-date, contained copper imports total 5.33Mt against 4.47Mt for the same period last year, a 855,000t or 19% year-on-year improvement.

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